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人工智慧風險優先排序：272位國際專家 Delphi 研究

arXiv - Computers and SocietyAlexander K. Saeri, Jess Graham, Michael Noetel, Peter Slattery, Dennis Ah-king, Edla Aittokallio, Ibitola Akindehin, Abbas Al Mahdi, Elie Alhajjar, Rafael Andersson Lipcsey, Gary Ang, Catherine M. Azam, Amos Azaria, Rishal Balkissoon, Isabel Barber\'a, Claudio Bareato, Jonathan Barry, Michael Basehart, Andrew M. Bean, Danny Belitz, Samantha Augusta Bennett, Kayla Blomquist, Damian Borstel, Ben Bucknall, Tomas Bueno Momcilovic, Aurelie Bugeau, Nicholas Caputo, Stephen Casper, Gulam Chagani, Ze Shen Chin, Jiyeon Cho, Jay Chooi, Joel N. Christoph, Dmytro Chumachenko, Kieran Conboy, Elizabeth M. Daly, Tom David, Paul de Font-Reaulx, Antonio De Santis, Fabrizio Degni, Christopher W. DiCarlo, Yawen Duan, Janet Egan, Ian W. Eisenberg, Sherif M. Elsafty, Adam Ennamli, Mark Esposito, Nicola Fabiano, Gallo Fall, Neil R. Fernandes, Pip Foweraker, Chiara Gallese, Sandra Galletti, Andrew Gamino-Cheong, Rokas Gipi\v{s}kis, Gwyn Glasser, Delaram Golpayegani, Jeff Grayson, Hans Gundlach, Josiah Hagen, Alexander Hagenah, Amelia S. Haines, The Anh Han, Yixiong Hao, Kasii Harris, Tianxing He, Koen Holtman, Giorgos Iacovides, Kenneth L. Ingham, Krystal Jackson, Adam Jones, Himanshu Joshi, Brian Judge, Arturs Kanepajs, Shreya Kapoor, Win Myat Nwe Khine, Aidan Kierans, Aleksandra Korolova, Markus Krebsz, Nicholas Kruus, Joe Kwon, Valeria Lazzaroli, Ray X. Lee, Evelina Leivada, Stephan Lewandowsky, Michael B. Li, Xiaojian Li, Geunsik Lim, Henrique Lisakowski, Fabio Lonardoni, Todd C. Lowe, Jackson G. Lu, Alexander Lyzhov, Nada Madkour, Parv Mahajan, David Manheim, Kareem Mathias, Claudio Mayrink Verdun, Sean McGregor, Scott McLean, Matthew J. McMahon, Minas Megalokonomos, Nicolas Mo\"es, Fernando Mourao, Yaroslav Mukhin, Malcolm Murray, Simon Mylius, Neeraj Nagpal, Koichi Nakada, Anna Neumann, Jessica Newman, Kwan Yee Ng, Minh N. Nguyen, Quynh Phuong Nguyen, Se\'an S. \'O h\'Eigeartaigh, Daria Onitiu, Kelly Onu, Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios, Ugur Ozer, Chanwoo Park, M. Alejandra Parra-Orlandoni, Patricia Paskov, Anna M. Pastwa, Burak Piskin, Jacob Pratt, Claudiu A. Predincea, Marjana Prifti Skenduli, Kenneth Priore, Mukunda Madhab Pujari, Zhenting Qi, Preethi Raghunathan, Robi Rahman, Deepika Raman, Max Reddel, Jyoti Ruparel, Emma B. Ruttkamp-Bloem, Tiffany Saade, Greg Sadler, Said Saillant, Paul M. Salmon, Ayrton San Joaquin, Lama Saouma, Maziya Sarangpurwala, Supheakmungkol Sarin, Daniel S. Schiff, Anna D. Schilling, Chris Schmitz, Reva Schwartz, Abeer Sharma, Tianhao Shen, Kehan Sheng, Maury D. Shenk, Eli Sherman, Chandler Smith, Julie M. Smith, Estevenson Solano, Oliver Sourbut, Madhulika Srikumar, Ryan Stendall, Jakob Stenseke, Michael Stern, Joshua Sternfeld, Nikko Stevens, Ilia Sucholutsky, Yuanyuan Sun, Mariami Tkeshelashvili, Cristian Trout, Brian Tse, Nikolaos Tsinganos, Michelle Vaccaro, Anthony R. Valiaveedu, Ramakrishnan Veeramony, Jeremy Verdo, Pulkit Verma, Andrea Luigi Vitali, Jinge Wang, JR Washebek, Yonah Welker, George F. Westerman, James Williams, Tristan Williams, Rongwu Xu, Mick Yang, Xuemeng Yang, Sander Zeijlemaker, Jingyu Zhang, Marta Ziosi, Neil Thompson

透過三輪 Delphi 研究，列出 AI 5 年內最嚴重風險並指明責任方

AI 幫你先抓重點

AI 重點 1

AI 建議聚焦於危險能力與武器網路攻擊，因其同時具高機率與高嚴重性

滑鼠懸停看 AI 判斷理由
因為這兩項風險不僅可能導致數百萬死亡或百億美元損失，且目前缺乏有效治理機制，故需優先制定國際規範與技術緩解措施。
AI 重點 2

AI 強調責任方應為通用 AI 開發者與治理機構，提示教育者需將風險管理納入 AI 課程設計

滑鼠懸停看 AI 判斷理由
教育者若將 AI 風險納入課程，可培養學生的風險評估與治理意識，並在實務中落實安全設計與倫理決策，提升學習成效與社會責任感。

核心研究發現

  1. 1

    5 大最嚴重風險：危險能力、競爭動態、武器與網路攻擊、權力集中、假資訊。

  2. 2

    在常態情境下，18/24 風險被評估 10% 以上的災難性結果機率；即使實施實務緩解，仍有5項風險超過10%機率。

  3. 3

    AI 使用者與一般公眾被視為最脆弱受害者；責任方則被指派給通用 AI 開發者及治理機構（政府、監管者、標準機構）。

對教育工作者的啟發

教育工作者可依此風險清單設計 AI 課程，將危險能力與網路攻擊納入案例分析，並引入治理機制模擬，讓學生學習風險評估、責任分配與國際規範制定。此舉不僅提升學生的批判性思維，也能促進學校與產業合作，落實安全與倫理的實務教學。

原始文獻資訊

英文標題：
Prioritization of Risks from Artificial Intelligence: A Delphi Study of 272 International Experts
作者：
Alexander K. Saeri, Jess Graham, Michael Noetel, Peter Slattery, Dennis Ah-king, Edla Aittokallio, Ibitola Akindehin, Abbas Al Mahdi, Elie Alhajjar, Rafael Andersson Lipcsey, Gary Ang, Catherine M. Azam, Amos Azaria, Rishal Balkissoon, Isabel Barber\'a, Claudio Bareato, Jonathan Barry, Michael Basehart, Andrew M. Bean, Danny Belitz, Samantha Augusta Bennett, Kayla Blomquist, Damian Borstel, Ben Bucknall, Tomas Bueno Momcilovic, Aurelie Bugeau, Nicholas Caputo, Stephen Casper, Gulam Chagani, Ze Shen Chin, Jiyeon Cho, Jay Chooi, Joel N. Christoph, Dmytro Chumachenko, Kieran Conboy, Elizabeth M. Daly, Tom David, Paul de Font-Reaulx, Antonio De Santis, Fabrizio Degni, Christopher W. DiCarlo, Yawen Duan, Janet Egan, Ian W. Eisenberg, Sherif M. Elsafty, Adam Ennamli, Mark Esposito, Nicola Fabiano, Gallo Fall, Neil R. Fernandes, Pip Foweraker, Chiara Gallese, Sandra Galletti, Andrew Gamino-Cheong, Rokas Gipi\v{s}kis, Gwyn Glasser, Delaram Golpayegani, Jeff Grayson, Hans Gundlach, Josiah Hagen, Alexander Hagenah, Amelia S. Haines, The Anh Han, Yixiong Hao, Kasii Harris, Tianxing He, Koen Holtman, Giorgos Iacovides, Kenneth L. Ingham, Krystal Jackson, Adam Jones, Himanshu Joshi, Brian Judge, Arturs Kanepajs, Shreya Kapoor, Win Myat Nwe Khine, Aidan Kierans, Aleksandra Korolova, Markus Krebsz, Nicholas Kruus, Joe Kwon, Valeria Lazzaroli, Ray X. Lee, Evelina Leivada, Stephan Lewandowsky, Michael B. Li, Xiaojian Li, Geunsik Lim, Henrique Lisakowski, Fabio Lonardoni, Todd C. Lowe, Jackson G. Lu, Alexander Lyzhov, Nada Madkour, Parv Mahajan, David Manheim, Kareem Mathias, Claudio Mayrink Verdun, Sean McGregor, Scott McLean, Matthew J. McMahon, Minas Megalokonomos, Nicolas Mo\"es, Fernando Mourao, Yaroslav Mukhin, Malcolm Murray, Simon Mylius, Neeraj Nagpal, Koichi Nakada, Anna Neumann, Jessica Newman, Kwan Yee Ng, Minh N. Nguyen, Quynh Phuong Nguyen, Se\'an S. \'O h\'Eigeartaigh, Daria Onitiu, Kelly Onu, Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios, Ugur Ozer, Chanwoo Park, M. Alejandra Parra-Orlandoni, Patricia Paskov, Anna M. Pastwa, Burak Piskin, Jacob Pratt, Claudiu A. Predincea, Marjana Prifti Skenduli, Kenneth Priore, Mukunda Madhab Pujari, Zhenting Qi, Preethi Raghunathan, Robi Rahman, Deepika Raman, Max Reddel, Jyoti Ruparel, Emma B. Ruttkamp-Bloem, Tiffany Saade, Greg Sadler, Said Saillant, Paul M. Salmon, Ayrton San Joaquin, Lama Saouma, Maziya Sarangpurwala, Supheakmungkol Sarin, Daniel S. Schiff, Anna D. Schilling, Chris Schmitz, Reva Schwartz, Abeer Sharma, Tianhao Shen, Kehan Sheng, Maury D. Shenk, Eli Sherman, Chandler Smith, Julie M. Smith, Estevenson Solano, Oliver Sourbut, Madhulika Srikumar, Ryan Stendall, Jakob Stenseke, Michael Stern, Joshua Sternfeld, Nikko Stevens, Ilia Sucholutsky, Yuanyuan Sun, Mariami Tkeshelashvili, Cristian Trout, Brian Tse, Nikolaos Tsinganos, Michelle Vaccaro, Anthony R. Valiaveedu, Ramakrishnan Veeramony, Jeremy Verdo, Pulkit Verma, Andrea Luigi Vitali, Jinge Wang, JR Washebek, Yonah Welker, George F. Westerman, James Williams, Tristan Williams, Rongwu Xu, Mick Yang, Xuemeng Yang, Sander Zeijlemaker, Jingyu Zhang, Marta Ziosi, Neil Thompson
來源：
arXiv - Computers and Society
AI 摘要模型：
openai/gpt-oss-20b
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